Saturday, January 27, 2007

Colts will win SB XLI; margin another matter

The Indianapolis Colts will win Super Bowl XLI. The question is whether they will win by more than seven points.

Neither the Colts nor Chicago Bears care about the margin. But we do. You care because Vegas is within driving distance - and the Internet is within fingertips. I do because I pick every NFL game to entertain the masses - and to torture myself.

The conflict in Super Bowl XLI is fairly simple: Either the Colts will dominate because the pressure is actually off them now, or the motivated Bears will make a game of it because they feel disrespected.

Resolving the conflict is the hard part. Both arguments are valid.

The '06 Colts are in the same position as the '94 San Francisco 49ers. Once Steve Young and the 49ers finally beat Dallas in the NFC Championship Game, the Super Bowl was almost easy. The 49ers trounced the San Diego Chargers, 49-26, and if you remember that game, it wasn't that close.

Peyton Manning and the Colts defeated their Cowboys on Sunday, at long last exterminating the New England Patriots, 38-34. ("Exterminate" is an appropriate verb because the Belichick-Brady Patriots are like roaches - they never die. This is meant as a compliment.) If you extend the corollary, the Colts should crush the Bears.

Beyond the 49ers factor, Indianapolis represents the more powerful AFC, which went 40-24 against the NFC this season. Amazingly, only one NFC team, Dallas, had a winning record (3-1) against AFC teams. The AFC also has won the past three Super Bowls.

Here's yet another pro-Indy stat: In games against common opponents, the Colts went 6-0, the Bears 3-2.

Ah, but these Bears feed off doubt. Many of us supposed experts picked New Orleans in the NFC Championship Game, and the Bears used that to their advantage. In the parity-driven NFL, where the talent is pretty equally distributed and every team has the same hard salary cap, even the slightest psychological edge can make all the difference.

"It bothered me," Bears safety Chris Harris said after Sunday's game. "Everybody said we couldn't match up with this team. You get tired of hearing that after awhile."

Lovie Smith made sure they heard about it.

Ask certain coaches about the point spread, and they will tell you they're unaware of it or that it doesn't matter. Chicago's Smith isn't one of them.

"If you look at what the Colts bring to the table, I could see why they would make us underdogs," Smith told reporters this week. "But we've been in that role before, and our guys like the underdog role. I wouldn't bet against the Bears if I were a betting man."

Smith isn't, but many are. Even those with a casual interest take note of the Super Bowl spread. And several interested parties have asked me why it's so big.

Tossing all the aforementioned statistics aside, guesses Sunday night ranged from 3-4 points - especially after the Bears manhandled the Saints and the Colts barely survived the Patriots.

But you have to remember, the Super Bowl spread isn't a true spread. It's artificially inflated.
So confirmed Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which sets the line for about 90 percent of the licensed Nevada sports books.

Seba and his cohorts pump up the Super Bowl line to try to draw action on the underdog. The general public generally bets the favorite, and the general public bets on the Super Bowl more than any other game.

If you lose your bet, you have to pay an extra 10 percent. If the sports books can attract the same number of wagers on both sides, it will in theory stand to make 10 percent no matter who wins Super Bowl XLI.

Thus, Colts by seven.

"If it were a regular-season game on a neutral field, I'd say four or 41/2," Seba said. "We know the money normally comes in on the favorite. If you take the underdog in the Super Bowl, you're probably getting more value. But it doesn't mean you'll cash a ticket."

Nothing is guaranteed, but last year's Super Bowl broke a string of four in a row in which the underdog covered - including two outright winners.

This season went to the 'dogs, who covered at a 54percent clip, Seba said. Last season favorites came in 57percent of the time.

If it were as simple as that - favorites one year, underdogs the next - "the sports books would go out of business," Seba said.

But sometimes it isn't that complicated.

The Colts beat better teams to get here, are peaking at the right time and have a decided advantage at quarterback. But the Bears aren't chumps, or the '94 Chargers. Chicago is sturdy in the trenches, has a very good defense and has won games on special teams alone.

It all adds up to this: Colts win, Bears cover.

Monday, January 22, 2007

Bet on the Super Bowl

In chilly Chicago, the Bears put the explosive Saints offense on ice, winning the NFC Championship Game 39-14. Their opponent in Super Bowl XLI on Feb. 4 will be Indianapolis, as the Colts edged the Patriots 38-34 in a wild comeback win.

Current Odds:
Indianapolis Colts - 7
Chicago Bears + 7
over/under 49

The Super Bowl is only 2 weeks away! The final two teams left are the Bears and the Colts. The Colts are favored after yesterday's 4th quarter drive to beat New England. Chicago destroyed the Saints yesterday, but after thier narrow overtime wins against the Seahawks, they are the underdogs for this year's Super Bowl.

The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet game on the year. Billions of money is wagered on each team and millions are bet on on propostion bets.

Some the the most populare Super Bowl prop bets are:
Who will win the coin toss? Bet on the team or heads or tails.
Who will win the Super Bowl MVP? Bet on the player.
Who will win the first half? Bet on the Team.
Who will win each quarter? Bet on the Team.
And player bets - like will Payton Manning throw and interception?

If you are going to Las Vegas and don't have an online sportsbook, open one now so that you on't miss out on the action. We highly recommend BoDog with their good lines and great customer service. Click the link at the top of the page for a 10% deposit bonus.


Tuesday, January 09, 2007

Bet on Super Bowl 41 Potential Matchups

With Super Bowl 41 around the corner and the post season in full swing,, the World-Wide leader in online sports betting, casino and poker gaming has stepped up once again, offering sports bettors another great Super Bowl futures wager, betting odds on the possible Super Bowl 41 matchups.

Bet on Super Bowl 41 at Bodog and always receive instant cash bonuses

The two favorite teams to play each other in the Super Bowl 41 are the teams with the best record. The AFC West Division leader, San Diego Chargers, have an impressive 14-2 record and the NFC North division leader Chicago Bears have a 13-3 record. They post the best odds at 4/1. Chicago vs. Baltimore is tied with New Orleans vs. San Diego for the second best odds at 6/1.

So for all you diehard football fans that need more than a few playoff games to wager on, check out the following betting odds on potential Super Bowl 41 matchups offered by

Chicago vs San Diego --- 4/1

Chicago vs Baltimore --- 6/1

Chicago vs Indianapolis --- 12/1

Chicago vs New England --- 12/1

Dallas vs San Diego --- 14/1

Dallas vs Baltimore --- 20/1

Dallas vs Indianapolis --- 38/1

Dallas vs New England --- 28/1

Philadelphia vs San Diego --- 10/1

Philadelphia vs Baltimore --- 15/1

Philadelphia vs Indianapolis --- 25/1

Philadelphia vs New England --- 25/1

NY Giants vs San Diego --- 35/1

NY Giants vs Baltimore --- 60/1

NY Giants vs Indianapolis --- 70/1

NY Giants vs New England --- 75/1

New Orleans vs San Diego --- 6/1

New Orleans vs Baltimore --- 10/1

New Orleans vs Indianapolis --- 17/1

New Orleans vs New England --- 17/1

Seattle vs San Diego --- 14/1

Seattle vs Baltimore --- 25/1

Seattle vs Indianapolis --- 40/1

Seattle vs New England --- 40/1

Any Other Matchup --- 8/1

Other sites to check out:
The Online Sports Bettor - My Mission: To bet on sports, win and tell you about it
SUPER BOWL BET - Bring you news and odds for the NFL Super Bowl

Friday, January 05, 2007

Philadelphia Eagles Pay Out Big to Win 2007 Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles would pay $1200 for every $100 bet

It's that time of year again...The NFL Playoffs!

Aside from the Super Bowl favorite Chargers, the Eagles have the longest winning streak heading into the postseason. Their run to the playoffs has been quite remarkable to say the least. Once Donavan McNabb was lost for the season way back in week11 versus the Titans, there were very few people in Philly that believed this team could make the playoffs let alone win their fifth NFC East title in six years. Even with McNabb, arguably the team’s best player, the Eagles were struggling mightily and didn’t look anything like a playoff team.

Prior to the Titans loss, the Birds dropped three of their previous four despite being the favorites in each game. Obviously a huge reason for their late season rally has been the reemergence of Jeff Garcia as a top flight QB. Since taking over the QB duties, Garcia has completed 62% of his passes while throwing 10 touchdowns to 2 interceptions. Garcia’s familiarity with the West Coast offense obviously made his transition to starter that much easier.

Anyone that has watched the Eagles play during their recent streak can tell that they are playing with a “nothing to lose” attitude. This is something that Eagles’ fans have not noticed in recent years. With expectations so high in previous years, the consensus has been that the Eagles choked in Conference Championship games versus the Buccaneers and Panthers. Even when they finally made the Super Bowl two seasons ago, their fourth quarter antics gave Eagles’ fans that “choked up” feeling again. Maybe this “nothing to lose” attitude fits the Eagles better than their usual role as favorites. This role obviously worked for the other team in Pennsylvania last year as they experienced similar postseason disappointments in years prior.

The best part of all is if you were to bet the Philadelphia Eagles to win the 2007 Super Bowl heading into the Wildcard Weekend, the payout odds were listed at 12/1 (or a $1200 payout for every $100 bet). Get your bets in now to lock in these great odds. odds to win the Super Bowl:

Ravens 4-1

Bears 9-2

Cowboys 25-1

Colts 8-1

Chiefs 50-1

Patriots 9-1

Saints 6-1

Giants 40-1

Jets 50-1

Eagles 12-1

Chargers 5-2

Seahawks 20-1

Ever wonder how to play street craps?